17. The preferred future

‘Thinking outside the box’ is a well-known concept of Edward de Bono. It entails a creative approach to problems, an approach that isn’t rooted in the usual step-by-step logic.

De Bono is a physician, psychologist, philosopher and management author. He developed a method to look at a subject from different angles and think about it. An application that can be traced to De Bono’s ideas was the organization of LA Summer Olympics in 1984. American sports and business executive Peter Ueberroth, who, as president of the Los Angeles Olympic Organizing Committee, made use of De Bono’s ideas, resulting in the first profitable Olympics in modern history.

One of De Bono’s concepts that come in handy when addressing complicated issues is his idea of ​​’designing an outcome’. Do not start with the problem, but with the desired outcome. This isn’t rocket science. We do it all the time. When we’re planning a party, for example, or a holiday, when we think about a future career or before we decorate a child’s room.

Lesson one of the mountain bike skill clinic:
Don’t look where you don’t want to go. Always look where you do want to go.

There are many situations where it might be useful to pay more attention to the preferred future. When we suffer from psychological or physical complaints, the first thing we think of is a disorder that needs to be treated. In a conflict, the first reflex is to look for the guilt or wrong that has been committed, and who is right. If economic growth lags behind, economic models with information from the past are consulted. We use algorithms with data from the past to steer towards the future (Chapter 3).

Because it is so common and seems obvious to always start with the problem, we thought it useful to write this book and demonstrate that it can be done differently. Using the problem as a starting point is indeed expedient when there is only one cause that is disturbing a situation. When the battery of a device is empty, you will either charge or replace the battery. But in complex and capricious circumstances where many causes play a role, this approach is less useful. Correcting one factor is not helpful when treating psychological afflictions. In these cases it makes more sense to envision the preferred outcome. Let go of cause-and-effect, perceived certainties and unidirectional thinking. Let self-organization do its work with a mix of effective things, and a new balance will emerge.

When the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, we may achieve more with a chemistry of everything that works. Do not use a calculation model with a fixed route, according to a one-to-one addition based on the past. This produces more of the same. Start with the preferred outcome. See what works or can work, and new functions will emerge. Perhaps you have to get accustomed to thinking in terms of functional outcomes and functional resources (capability, talents, competencies, resources). But in an everchanging world, flexibility is an asset.

Functional goals and means
Someone is obese and unhappy about it. The analytical approach requires a diagnosis: he weighs 44 lbs too much. The treatment that comes with this approach is a weight loss program, with diet and exercise interventions, until the patient reaches his target weight.

Using a functional approach, one starts with the preferred future and asks the patient to set a functional goal. He is unhappy about being overweight and wants to lose weight. What difference will it make when he has lost enough weight? With this question about the desired outcome, in solution-focused terms the preferred future, he can visualize his new and better life. What will he be doing differently? How will other people react differently? Well, in his preferred future he dares to go to the gym and swimming pool again. He feels appreciated, and actively participates in social life. He is fit, so he participates in activities that require a good physical condition again. The means to achieve this goal consist of what already works (and may be repeated) and what could also work. He could stop his beer consumption and start drinking water, so he does. He could go to work on his bicycle, so he manages to do that with a new bike and rain gear. He always wanted a dog and his wife supports him in this. He gets compliments on his changes and regains the courage to participate in society. Here the target weight is not the goal. It’s about what a new and better life looks like. And what he is doing differently in that new and better life.

Two people face a divorce. They accuse each other of using the children to get their way. The analytical path: What went wrong? Who is to blame? The woman turns out to have lied about her husband’s behavior. Judge’s verdict: The wife falsely accused her husband of neglect. This allegation is proven. The verdict: The woman loses parental authority.
The functional path: What is their common goal? Working well as a parenting team. What works (already or still) and what else could work? Both agree (on the advice of the judge) to a mediation. They start making agreements about working together as a good parenting team in the interest of the children and the first signs of improvement become visible; an upward spiral emerges.

A fast-growing multinational needs a large number of new employees for its data analysis department. Management expressed the wish to strive for a more balanced male/female division in this department. A company that approaches this issue in an analytical manner could ask a recruitment agency to run a campaign that particularly appeals to women. Suppose it works and many women apply. Suppose the company has an algorithm that can distil a selection from the large number of candidates. And suppose the selection program is based on the data of the best 10 percent data engineers the company employs. The program then comes with a selection of …… mainly men. It generates more of the same.
A functional approach consists of asking the cooperation of people who already work in the company and addressing them as experts. They are invited to describe a well-functioning department (the preferred future). They use their creativity and look for candidates who can contribute to the desired outcome. The department grows organically to a new composition with a new dynamic. Positive developments emerge that were not there before.

Summary Chapter 17:

  • When things are complicated and unpredictable, or have many causes that are not identifiable or resolvable, start with the preferred future.
  • Solutions can be found by facilitating self-organization.
  • When the whole is more than the sum of its parts, start with the desired outcome.
  • In these cases the synthesis paradigm offers new options, whereas the analysis paradigm falls short.